Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.061745 1.116456 1.172936 1.235709 1.303656 1.375131 1.456188
2025-12-28 0.984432 1.063265 1.148017 1.246356 1.357888 1.481130 1.628554
2026-01-04 0.922382 1.014165 1.115572 1.236781 1.378864 1.541586 1.744174
2026-01-11 0.887214 0.989939 1.106045 1.248354 1.419992 1.622864 1.884729
2026-01-18 0.853307 0.963659 1.090749 1.249843 1.446444 1.685284 2.003630
2026-01-25 0.835248 0.954056 1.093347 1.271289 1.496464 1.777573 2.164653
2026-02-01 0.797354 0.918327 1.062015 1.248345 1.488359 1.794257 2.226205
2026-02-08 0.758651 0.879688 1.025000 1.215795 1.465249 1.788808 2.255708
2026-02-15 0.733808 0.856897 1.006337 1.205140 1.469213 1.818262 2.333997
2026-02-22 0.716131 0.842138 0.996841 1.205383 1.486891 1.866289 2.440893
2026-03-01 0.692068 0.818357 0.974786 1.187889 1.479310 1.878334 2.495118
2026-03-08 0.663692 0.788138 0.943337 1.156496 1.450954 1.859177 2.500495
2026-03-15 0.645354 0.770841 0.928815 1.148250 1.455687 1.889439 2.586810
2026-03-22 0.635382 0.764019 0.927717 1.158105 1.486265 1.958966 2.740412
2026-03-29 0.618879 0.748049 0.913816 1.149532 1.489710 1.987944 2.830486
2026-04-05 0.610697 0.742663 0.913703 1.159900 1.520804 2.060120 2.997842
2026-04-12 0.599690 0.733106 0.907513 1.161233 1.538309 2.111938 3.134666
2026-04-19 0.595765 0.732817 0.913798 1.180432 1.583295 2.209602 3.361471
2026-04-26 0.578156 0.713525 0.893264 1.159892 1.566407 2.206028 3.403079
2026-05-03 0.558417 0.690865 0.867439 1.130718 1.534853 2.176512 3.393413
2026-05-10 0.546240 0.678230 0.855241 1.121159 1.533438 2.196876 3.480342
2026-05-17 0.537890 0.670613 0.849820 1.121377 1.547300 2.243550 3.622626
2026-05-24 0.524740 0.656047 0.834164 1.105672 1.534924 2.244303 3.672832